Porto vs Benfica prediction 03.03.2024

• Competition: Liga Portugal
• Date: Sunday, 3rd March 2024
• Kickoff: 20:30 UTC / 21:30 CET
• Venue: Estádio do Dragão (Porto)

The 254th “O Clássico” will occur at Estádio do Dragão in Porto this Sunday evening, featuring the two most successful clubs in Portugal.

In the previous season, Porto emerged victorious in both the League Cup and the Portuguese Cup, and achieved a 2nd place finish in the league, trailing just two points behind Benfica. However, the current season sees the popular Dragons falling behind Benfica and Sporting by seven and nine points, respectively. This makes the league title seem increasingly out of reach. However, a victory over Benfica could narrow the gap significantly between Porto and Benfica, who currently hold the 1st place position. Despite this, the Dragons are performing well in the Champions League, having secured a 1:0 victory over Arsenal in the first leg of the 1/8 Finals.

Last year, Benfica clinched the league title and they’re maintaining a strong performance this season too. They’re currently leading with 58 points, two ahead of Sporting who are in second place, although they’ve played one more game. However, their performance in the domestic Cup competitions hasn’t been up to par. Their performance in the Champions League group stage was underwhelming but they succeeded in advancing to the Europa League 1/8 Finals, where they are set to face Rangers, merely four days after their game against Porto.

Porto vs Benfica pick: Under 2.5 goals

With just 17 and 15 goals allowed in 23 rounds, these two teams are indisputably the league’s best defensive teams.

Offensively, Porto falls significantly behind the top four teams &— Benfica, Sporting, and Braga. Having scored just 38 goals &— an average of 1.65 per game &— they are notably inferior to the league’s best offensive team, Sporting, which boasts an average of 2.86 goals per game. Despite this, Porto’s strong defense has helped them maintain a high position in the league table. Particularly at home games, Porto has shown commendable performance in recent matches, managing to keep a clean sheet in the past six games across all competitions. This included games against formidable teams like Arsenal and Braga. Consequently, even a highly capable team like Benfica might struggle to score against them.

In the past five head-to-head games, four of them have resulted in less than three goals. Taking into account the defensive performances of both teams throughout the season and recent head-to-head games, we suggest that betting on less than 2.5 goals is the most secure option for this match.