Estrela Amadora vs Arouca prediction 28.12.2023

• Competition: Liga Portugal
• Date: Thursday, 28th December 2023
• Kickoff: 20:15 UK / 21:15 CET
• Venue: Estádio José Gomes (Amadora)

Last season, Estrela Amadora competed in the Liga Portugal 2, managing to reach the playoffs and achieving victory against Maritimo, which led to their promotion. The Tricolores are performing impressively this season, currently standing 9th with 16 points after 14 rounds. However, with only a four-point gap between them and 17th place Gil Vicente, their 9th place standing may not be as secure as it seems. Despite their current good standing, Estrela must remain vigilant as just a few poor outcomes could put them back in the relegation zone.

Arouca had a successful previous season, finishing in 5th place, only falling behind Benfica, Porto, Braga, and Sporting. They managed to qualify for the Europa Conference League but were unfortunately eliminated by Brann before reaching the Group stage. However, they had a dismal start to this season, finding themselves at the bottom of the league table. But since changing their coach about a month ago, they have completely turned their performance around, not losing any of their last four matches across all competitions. They have now moved up to 14th place, just two points clear of the relegation zone. We anticipate they will continue to perform well and rise higher in the league standings.

Estrela Amadora vs Arouca pick: Under 2.5 goals

Despite occupying the 9th spot, Estrela Amadora boasts the second-poorest offensive record this season. Their dismal performance is reflected in their tally of just 15 goals in 14 matches, averaging 1.07 per game. This lack of scoring prowess shouldn’t come as a shock, considering they have the league’s lowest xG, a mere 0.79. This lackluster offense, balanced by a decent defense, resulted in Estrela having less than 2.5 goals in nine of their Liga Portugal games, which constitutes 64% of their matches. Furthermore, their recent trend of playing low-scoring games continued as they kept under 2.5 goals in seven out of their last nine matches.

Throughout the season, Arouca’s offensive performance was unimpressive, netting only 18 goals in 14 matches. However, they showed improved offense in recent games, scoring ten goals in their last four games. It’s important to note, however, that these games were against teams that were performing poorly and those at the bottom of the league. Now, as they face a superior defensive team away from home, we do not anticipate them maintaining this dominant offensive performance.

Taking all factors into account, we are of the opinion that betting on less than 2.5 goals is the most secure choice for this matchup.